How 'Far' Will Iran Go...Really?

I never ever get political in these musings because it is not my particular area of expertise and it is not the purpose of this blog. That said, my wife and I want to ask a few simple questions of both sides in the current Israeli/Iran crisis (is it a crisis yet?). Once again the rhetoric is ratcheting up. On Sunday, September 23, spokesmen from Iran's Revolutionary Guard uttered those wretched words, "World War III." (see: http://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/54559-revolutionary-guards-strike-on-iran-would-trigger-world-war-iii) God help us!

Here are a few factors we are thinking about (from: http://www.wikihow.com/Survive-a-Nuclear-Attack).

1.      What is the extent of  the damage done by a typical nuclear explosion? "Even around 8 kilometers (5 miles) you will suffer third degree thermal-burns; still at 32 kilometers (20 miles) the heat can burn the skin off your body. The wind itself will peak at around 960 kilometers per hour (600mph) and will level anything or anybody caught in the open.”

2.      What kind of dangers are posed by the resulting radiation? "Residual radiation. Known as radiation fallout. If the detonation was a surface blast or the fireball hits the earth, large amounts of fallout occurs. The dust and debris kicked into the atmosphere rains down, bringing with it dangerous amounts of radiation. The fallout may rain down as contaminated black soot known as "black rain," which is very fatal and may be of extreme temperature. Fallout will contaminate anything it touches…Once you have survived the blast and the initial radiation (for now at least; radiation symptoms have an incubation period), you must find protection against the burning black soot”

The National Terror Alert Webpage adds these details (found at http://www.nationalterroralert.com/nuclear/):

1 Megaton Surface Blast: Fallout: “One of the effects of nuclear weapons detonated on or near the earth’s surface is the resulting radioactive fallout. Immediately after the detonation, a great deal of earth and debris, made radioactive by the blast, is carried high into the atmosphere, forming a mushroom cloud. The material drifts downwind and gradually falls back to earth, contaminating thousands of square miles. This page describes the fallout pattern over a seven-day period.” (Assumptions: Wind speed: 15 mph - Wind direction: due east - Time frame: 7 days)

3,000 Rem [Rem: Stands for “roentgen equivalent man.” This is a measurement used to quantify the amount of radiation that will produce certain biological effects]
Distance: 30 miles
“Much more than a lethal dose of radiation. Death can occur within hours of exposure. About 10 years will need to pass before levels of radioactivity in this area drop low enough to be considered safe, by U.S. peacetime standards.”

900 Rem - Distance: 90 miles
“A lethal dose of radiation. Death occurs from two to fourteen days.”

300 Rem - Distance: 160 miles
“Causes extensive internal damage, including harm to nerve cells and the cells that line the digestive tract, and results in a loss of white blood cells. Temporary hair loss is another result.”

90 Rem - Distance: 250 miles
“Causes a temporary decrease in white blood cells, although there are no immediate harmful effects. Two to three years will need to pass before radioactivity levels in this area drop low enough to be considered safe, by U.S. peacetime standards.”

Finally, the target Iran seems to be focused on when it makes its threats - or at least the first target Israel seems to be concerned about initially - is the city of Tel Aviv. Now consider these factoids: How far is Tel Aviv from Jerusalem, the second most holy site for Islam? Just 78.72 kilometres (48.92 miles). How far away from Tel Aviv is Gaza, home to 1.7 million desperate people whose cause Iran claims to uphold? Just 85.1 km (52.9 Miles ). How far away is Tel Aviv from the border with Lebanon where thousands of and thousands of Iran’s allies and proxy militants live? About 118 kilometers (73 miles).

So, here are our rather obvious questions:

First, why on earth would Iran, in an effort to destroy its enemy choose to do so in a way that would also annihilate or permanently harm so many people and places for whose sake it seeks such destruction?

Secondly with all the white-hot rhetoric, cold shoulders, and “red lines” between the US and Israel, why hasn’t this very simple question been discussed when considering the plausibility of Iran mounting an attack? Or has it? Did we miss something? Just wondering. -jts